Cocooning the elderly

A senior government advisor has suggested that vulnerable older people could be “cocooned” in order to protect them from the outbreak of coronavirus

A major study in the Journal of the American Medical Association analysed data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and calculated the following mortality rates via age, from more than 77,000 cases:

10-19: 0.2%

20-29: 0.2%

30-39: 0.2%

40-49: 0.4%

50-59: 1.3%

60-69: 3.6%

70-79: 8%

80 and older: 14.8%

This "frightening" data released last month had not hit home for the UK public, one disease control consultant told Sky News.

Dr Bharat Pankhania, from the University of Exeter, has devised both national and international communicable disease control action plans.

He said the government was not doing enough to try to protect those above the age of 60 from coronavirus - and should be placing stronger restrictions such as advising them against going to crowded public places.

"I am not saying they should self-isolate but I am saying they should think about how many people they're around in public, because a 4% risk is unbelievable - especially when you compare that the risk of dying from influenza is 0.8% for any age group."

Research above from China has shown that over-60s make up more than 80% of coronavirus deaths. A study in the Journal of the American Medical Association calculates that the mortality rate for those aged 80 or older is 14.8%. For those aged 70-79, it is 8%, and for 60- to 69-year-olds it is 3.6%.

Dr David Halpern, the chief executive of the government-owned Behavioural Insights Team and a member of Whitehall’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, told the BBC the government was considering a policy of cocooning those most vulnerable to coronavirus.

“There’s going to be a point, assuming the epidemic flows and grows as it will do, where you want to cocoon to protect those at-risk groups so they don’t catch the disease,” he said.

“By the time they come out of their cocooning, herd immunity has been achieved in the rest of the population.”